A newhire today should upgrade according to the company 2.5 years and according to the union (figuring everything stays constant) just under 4 years. My guess would be somewhere in the middle. The unions outlook doesn't take into consideration growth. For example the 5 145s that we are getting back from storage and other airlines. Also if more people leave for the majors. PIC is important but many FOs are hired at LCC and legacy carries. There are also 10+ year captains at the majority of regionals with thousands of PIC time and no call.