Originally Posted by eaglefly

The 10 year assumption seems a bit long to me. A major issue I see with these projections is that be it the most optimistic (5.5 years) or the most pessimistic (10 years) is that they require or at least assume Envoy will maintain its present role and make-up along with all the other WO and non-WO AA regional carriers to maintain theirs. The regional pilot recruitment/retention crisis (along with changes at AA) will inevitably change the present landscape IMO and so that unknown change alone will almost certainly result in major changes to the AAG regional structure and thus alterations to estimations of flow timing. In fact, one possibility is that AAG elects to essentially incorporate some or all of the WO's as part of AA in some form or fashion resulting in essentially one seniority list. That would require some major changes in relationship among the parties, especially AAG management and APA, but depending on the seriousness of the future regional situation, it is within the realm or reasonable possibility.



Again, I think nothing significant will occur until at the very earliest late this year when AA's remaining synergies are enacted like the SLI, PBS, and full contractual implementation. At AA, we may see a lot of fleet shifting and domicile adjustments for 2017 along with a better handle on staffing requirements going forward from there. The regional pilot situation should also have had more time to offer a better outlook there to determine the best strategy going forward and thus what will be done regarding the "Eagle" network. There are several possibilities, some good and some not so good for various pilots (including AA pilots) and until those present themselves, I think any claim of any flow projection is a waste of time. It's certainly something one getting hired today at any of the WO's shouldn't place much weight in from a timing perspective. Since Parker seems to be bucking the trends at Delta and United who are placing a larger percentage of their future bets in the mainline partition and doubling down on large RJ's, should that blow up in his face (and ours), something more radical might be necessary in the future to reverse course so as to maintain market share.



I would think they have been smart enough to have "what if" sessions to ferret out various responses to situations and their implications, but until we see situation X or Y develop, whatever those are will not be communicated publicly. I think they have a rough plan for the Eagle system as of now and it may be very different from what we assume on these forums. The flow claims now are simply a recruiting tool to meet near-term goals of stability IMO. 12-18 months from now, we very well may be talking about a whole new paradigm regarding the relationship between AA and Eagle and their respective pilots.