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Old 04-11-2016 | 07:11 PM
  #83  
Dorn
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Joined: Feb 2013
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This is the part that's frustrating. We are tearing each other apart instead of working together. We all have flown with someone who is a "DB" in one form or another. It sucks and I'm sure in every other profession there's always "that guy."

The reality is the regionals are all starting to feel the pinch. The majors have a ways to go till they alter their hiring standards. Figure a solid 10,000 ( of the ~15,000) regional pilots current and well qualified, plus the military guys who are also separating, there is a steady flow for the next 5 years. Beyond that is anyone's guess as to what the majors will do.
AA, UAL, and DAL are hiring ~ 800/year +/- 100 and will take about 5 years. As of now, no major is hiring without a 4 year degree ( other than flow, or a few super lucky 1%er) and there will be a total mess at the regional level in the next few years. The wholy owned MAY, be better off only because they have deeper pockets when push comes to shove. Reference endeavor, and envoy who are now ponying up more and more incentives to stick around. AA has just started with the 10k bonus a year for FO's. You can bet they will add more in some fashion before they squander off more FO's. The days of Wip saw are likely gone, they can't fear grenade their current staffing in hopes of a few million dollar contract less. Those days are gone, at least for now. No, today is all about retention. The WO will have a different way of appealing/keeping their employees while the 3rd party comp will have another. The question you need to ask yourself, those of you who are job searching, do you think the employer you seek can continue forward when it really gets bad. My two cents is the larger 3rd party guys can stick around but the periphery companies will be in a terrible spot. I'm not saying it's all roses at a WO such as envoy, and you have make your decision with what you think is best for you and your family, but I'll say this one last time, if it's first year pay you seek, that company that is offering that HAS ONLY THAT, to give. Their full tilt and have shallow pockets. They make their money off the contract they have with whatever company they have contracted with. So, they have a fixed income and cannot eat into their profit in order to satisfy their employees. They will have to do what Republic is doing if they want to continue their survival.
In the longer term we will probably see MPL style certification in the states. But till then don't go to the flavor of the month in HOPES of that PIC time. Like the stock market analogy I used earlier, once the big banks and AM radio commercials push that commodity/security, it's already too late and you'll just ride the downside of a bubble.
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