Originally Posted by
Papoo
I don't dispute the premise of what you're saying, but I do dispute your inference that you should protect the 'worlds most highly prized aviation market'. There is no cabotage, and trans-Atlantic customers are an equal mix of Americans and non-Americans, so both sides of the pond should share equal rights.
I do agree that this pushes the industry closer to the toilet. In the EU, domestic flying (let's call it that, as its within the EU) has become incredibly difficult with RYR and EZY etc. The legacies are making all their profits on the wide body international flying. BA's short haul is pretty much a feeder for that. So, I see international flying flourishing, but as you say, domestic flying is going to get rough. Incidentally, this is the opposite to the US market.
I guess you can only play to your strengths.
I don't see it flourishing though because if I read the ME's playbook, I see them waiting in the wings, continually building their ME hub, but ready to pounce on a struggling EU carrier (Al Italia is nearly the first chance) to provide them with EU market access which they can then take on the EU/US markets head to head with again, their shiny taxpayer subsidized airplanes and rented labor. Maybe even doing the same if an asia carrier presents itself. Without being a public company, nobody needs to see their books. They don't have to prove anything to anybody but themselves.
Cabotage in the US market will be the last to go, if ever, but it's not an insurmountable barrier if foreign carriers are just patient enough. You need a good crisis.
Like Rahm Emanuel is famous for saying: "Never let a good crisis go to waste!"