In July 2017 the consensus of analysts was Delta would bring in a pre-tax income of $5.8bn, the result was $5.9bn. Their 2016 estimate was $6.68bn and $7bn for 2017.
So far the picture looks like this on an earnings per share basis:
That is the data. Now an opinion. If we move further away from our contractual demand, it is likely the company will do the same. This kind of movement is a lack of progress towards a settlement.
I would expect the company to respond in kind, seeking changes to scope, training, sick leave, bidding and crew augmentation to match the provisions in place at United and American. Of these, the scope changes and the augmentation changes concern me the most. Of course if both parties are moving away from one another's positions it is unlikely any agreement will be reached.
At least among those who follow the numbers, Delta's performance isn't all that surprising. Obviously, those who buy the company's equity are not all that surprised to the upside, but there has been good news and providence has smiled on us in a number of ways that improves out bargaining position. I have no doubt our negotiators will work hard to capitalize on these changes.
Business moves relatively quickly and already the terms of the rejected TA are, in my opinion, getting stale. We will know more about Delta's intended fleet mix next month. Delta will likely execute their pre-planned Aeromexico transaction around the beginning of the 3rd qtr. So yes, there is a lot of adjustments that would have to be made, even if the Aeromexico JV is a separate negotiation.
The outlook for us has improved with fuel prices, an "inflection point" in PRASM guidance and United's ability to get their deal done clean.
So Jerry (or whoever you are) IMHO it would be grossly mistaken to rescind our opener, but it would be entirely appropriate to make tweaks as the business environment changes.