As I've repeatedly stated (and have been mercilessly mauled for), there are many factors that will occur over time that makes both the upgrade and flow projections the shakiest of representations. We now see but one, but many others will also occur over the next months and years. The burst of last months flows is claimed to be both a domicile selection and aircraft issue and a likely a mixture of both. Since the April 175 batch will crawl through the training process over the next several months, they will logjam much of the interest in Envoy during that period and throw the required MONTHLY 35-40 new-hire flow-thru fuel out the side of the fueling nozzle and the new-hire deficit will grow exponentially.

It must be soberingly noted what the April and May descrepencies demonstrate regarding the ability to attract new-hires which prove that the biggest draws to Envoy are NOT the AA flow (or even pay/bonus), for if it was, pilots wouldn't care so much what aircraft or domicile they'd get as long as they got in the Envoy/AA conga line as soon as possible. Thus since the shaky flow isn't the main draw, the factors in play put Envoy between a rock and a hard place are the opposing dynamics that need to be eliminated to change Envoys future, which due to its existence almost certainly involves contraction which then only tightens the the flat spin as a smaller Envoy upgrades fewer and slower, which means the flow slows even more as Envoy has demonstrated it will not flow itself out of existence (even a little, i.e., the withheld 5 from March) for altruistic benefit to its present pilots.