Originally Posted by
DraGoon
Hypothetically speaking, you're right, no argument from me on that point. However right now we are not talking hypothetical. In the current market the likelihood of that happening are slim at best. Envoy is not going to park all of their E145's before a new hire is able to gain enough seniority to be furloughed (worst case). With the deliveries on the remaining 40 EJets I think their are about 12 in revenue service now, thats ~280 FO's that will be needed to staff. I think a new hire going into the Ejet right now would be pretty safe.
Envoy doesn't need to park all the 145's for such a scenario to happen (I didn't even infer that would occur anyway). All they have to do is what they are headed to do - contract. If they contract at the rate of pilot attrition, theoretically they can just gradually dispose of smaller Embraers (parking/transfer) to match their staffing, but in all likelihood, pilot attrition will be unbalanced, especially in domiciles, like DFW. That means more senior pilots can and likely will displace into E-175 F/O positions to stay there. Personally, I think you're overconfident of just how things may very well play out for you there if you ARE a "noob" as you claim to be (which I have doubts about).
Originally Posted by
DraGoon
As for your quitting suggestion, that's a bit of a stretch as well. Not all noobs are as shallow as you think they are. Some of us understand, pecking order, totem poles and seniority. Just because we didn't spend 15+ years at Eagle paying our dues doesn't mean we haven't spent 24+ years paying our dues elsewhere.
An interesting point, but if you would review the Envoy threads of the last 6 months, you'd note many Envoy pilots here have succumbed to exactly the overly optimistic assumptions you appear to be doing. They blasted me (and a few others) repeatedly and relentlessly about "how things are different now at Envoy" and "AAG is running the show, not AMR" and "the 2.5/6 projections are doable" and my "hypotheticals" are low percentage long shots and here we are with the 2.5 year upgrade claim a complete dud and the 6 year flow right behind it. Last months rush to the door there has all but flopped a scant 1 month later and the dynamics in play that caused that are a catch-22 and there are multiple situations and scenarios that none of us have considered that could change the situation at Envoy dramatically in the future.
It's just a suggestion to you (and for your own well being), but I would offer the same advice to you as to others who have IMO previously overplayed their expectations about their future at Envoy - Don't assume you've got the future all figured out, especially when it comes to the consistently topsy-turvy world of Envoy. If you ARE a true noobie there, what you have learned at other carriers may not apply to Envoy going forward and to assume it does, you may be headed for the same repetitive cycle of irrational euphoria - crushing disappointment as so many who also have experience wandering around the industry have and do now at Envoy. I know as I too have fallen victim to that same dysfunctional cycle during the early tenure of my near quarter century at its predecessor Eagle.
Good luck and one other point I should emphasize is that you might want to temper your view of the 145 as that is almost certainly your upgrade whenever that occurs, so embracing it now might be a smoother transition, at least emotionally.
