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Old 05-09-2016 | 06:39 PM
  #141  
olly
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Originally Posted by MeXC
The math is nice but really all you need to ask yourself is: Would the company prefer to drop the A-plan and go with an increased B-plan?
You then have your answer of what is best for the employee.
The math is imperative. An understanding of the ERISA laws, is helpful to balance the "conventional wisdom" that corporate America has so successfully espoused in getting rid of DB plans.

Of course the company would prefer to "drop" the DB plan. Fortunately, the ERISA laws prohibit them from doing so, and unless ALPA "gives" it away, it is not going to happen outside of a distress termination in bankruptcy pending approval by both a Federal judge & the PBGC.

If the company provided 25% I personally might reconsider my position on the issue if I was in my 30's. You will need that much to even have a "chance" of getting close to the current DB plan payout. That assumes that you have the skill, execution ability and fortitude in managing ALL risk factors, and have positioned your >$2M portfolio to withstand a bear market just prior to retirement.

We now have a 3 legged stool of retirement, DB, DC, and Soc Sec. I had the ALPA provided Schwab planner provide an analysis and retirement plan. The DB pension annuity is a KEY and foundational component of retirement (even if it hasn't been indexed for inflation contractually- the IRS is increasing the max qualified pensionable earnings $5k every 3 years). If you were down to just two- DC and SS, and had a bear market like 2009 with 3-4 years to retire, how healthy would your portfolio be??? If you had an asset allocation to target up to 6% ROI (and would need to keep equities even after retirement to sustain the growth while withdrawal) you would be heavy in equities. Equity heavy portfolios lost 35-45% in the bear market of 2008/9. That would set that $2M back so significantly that there would be some hard decisions (without a DB plan to cover non-discretionary spending). That is the market risk you take with an "all-in" DC only plan.

ERISA laws mandate funding minimums to cover obligations smoothed over time periods. So you -the gear yanking pilot do not have to sweat or manage market, portfolio or systemic risk. Your bet is that the company will remain profitable (out of BK court), and your representative collective bargaining agent would not be foolish enough to give away the DB "leg" of the 3 legged stool of retirement support. It matters little of what the company "wants", as long as there are contractual obligations, profits, and stability in the ERISA law.

Again IMHO, the company has been adroit financial managers thru the biggest economic downturn since the great depression, as well as previous recessions. Past history is no guarantee of future results, but that is how most bet.
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