Originally Posted by ag386

The 2.5/6 or 2.5/5.5 as some liked to call it was a company created fuzzy math ponzi scheme. It was based on the absolute best case scenario and that essentially 360 or so pilots would flow to AA each year without metering or holdbacks. Let's state today that the upgrade is still at 8 years and the guys flowing are between 15 and 16 years of seniority.

In a perfect world, I agree that the math adds up. However, we know that the world isn't perfect and when you are dealing with Envoy/AAG management, well, if you take what they say at face value then PM me as I have some great oceanfront property I'd like to sell you at a deep discount.

The first chink in this plan came several months ago when the company metered 5 flows in an overstaffed situation. Why would they do this? Well, because they are Envoy/AAG and they can. That about sums it up.

Fast forward several months and Envoy continues to hold onto more airframes in addition with getting returned frames that weren't in the original fleet plan. Envoy's fleet plan is fluid as the staffing situation at other regionals is just as dire as what Envoy is left with. Now, Envoy is offering vacation buybacks over the summer so they've quickly gone from very fat on staffing to understaffed. Consider also that outside the flow, an average of 10 pilots leave per month, about 5 CA and 5 FO.

There are still roughly 300 or so of the 824 remaining to flow. It has always been my belief that the company intends on flowing out the 824 as soon as they possibly can and then assessing the situation and changing the flow program to meet the challenges of the current environment. Today, even flowing out these last 300 or so guys is going to be very tough for them to do as Envoy is not getting enough new hires to replace the guys leaving. Call it what you want, contractual, letter of agreement or whatever, I can guarantee you that the company will absolutely not flow out more than it takes to operate the fleet. There are those that say this will not happen because no one will come here. Well, it's already happening.

Envoy needs a minimum of 35 new hires per month to keep this ponzi scheme alive. They almost achieved that target in April with the bonus program that was expanded to Part 91 guys in addition to the others that already qualified. There weren't apparently many takers as the number of new hires in May is currently at 1. Envoy has been averaging about 15 new hires per month over the course of last year. I do not expect that to change this year. The company is already looking at what they can do to attract new hires outside of what has already been done. The problem remains though that you can give a pig a bath and get him all cleaned up and looking good, but later on he's going to get dirty again and is still a pig.

First, Envoy must change their culture and treatment of their employees. As a former Eaglevoy pilot myself, I can tell you that this is a long ingrained behavior held over from the AMR days. AAG has taken over and actually made things worse. This is something I do not think the company has the ability to change. It's accepted behavior and those on the outside can speak to those inside and make their decision. Today's environment allows them to do that. Apparently, around 20 to 25 just recently said thanks but no thanks to Envoy after being hired but not guaranteed the E175. Definitely a bad move in many ways, but with today's mindset of the ME generation and market conditions, they can absolutely do that. I guess they also decided to forego the horrible treatment of pilots just to fly one of Envoy's aged out 145's.

Envoy has managed to shoot themselves in the foot yet again and management is searching for answers on how to solve this riddle of "Why don't they come here?" As usual, unable to see the forest for the trees, nothing will change.

Management does have a reprieve over the summer as the Letter T pilots return, the halt of the flow is expected. After the final Letter T guy returns and the flow is geared up to resume with anxious Envoy pilots chomping at the bit, the day of reckoning will arrive. I've stated that to be near the end of this year. With few new hires and a fleet of planes AAG demands Envoy to operate, you will then see management with no choice but to keep every available body on property as that's unfortunately their last card to play.