Nah.

Same guys who like holding their good FO lines are going to like them even more with the pay increase. Unless we get paid commutes in from home, you'll still be spending 3 nights a week with your besties in the Kew.

Even with a new contract being mid to low seniority will guarantee you night flying and DR/Kingston/POS runs ad naseum.

Again, I'll point to Delta at NY. Same scenario. Lots of guys who commute, most would prefer to stay an FO flying decent trips making OK money.

*Find me an airline who's most JR base isn't in NY.... Combine that with the fact that almost 50% of our flying touches the NY area and there's your answer as to why we'll have relatively JR captains for a long time.*