Originally Posted by
eaglefly
What if it trickles just enough to keep you there, but not get you to AA to fast ? Sure, ALL would go to another legacy and most would go to an LCC, but most aren't geared for corporate, haven't planned on leaving the industry and virtually NONE would make a lateral move to the bottom of another regionals list in this environment.
People might threaten to leave, but when their guard was down and they were more honest (when strategically they shouldn't have been) in what seemed like an innocent EL poll, IIRC about 70% said they are committed to Envoy come what may. Few present captains can duplicate their income outside an RJ captains job and many of the F/O's are in too deep to move anywhere but up to legacy or LCC.
I think Envoy knows they've got most pilots by the short-hairs and aren't worried too much with non-expected attrition, especially if the flow DOESN'T stop, but just slows to a more modest 20/month or in a consolidation scenario, the equivalent of that for present Envoy PP's.
Fair enough, but none of that stops or even slows the retirements coming of the top of AA. When push comes to shove and they can't find enough qualified pilots, which do you think AAG is more likely to park? An A-319 that requires fewer block hours to move a certain number of people per day, or an E-145 that requires more? My money is on the tiny, gas-guzzling, hated-by-pax 50-seater. Up-gauging is the business model of the future for domestic operations. Eventually you can't up-gauge any more and you are forced to bring your outsourced flying back in-house. Just a matter of time in our current environment.