Originally Posted by
eaglefly
What if it trickles just enough to keep you there, but not get you to AA to fast ? Sure, ALL would go to another legacy and most would go to an LCC, but most aren't geared for corporate, haven't planned on leaving the industry and virtually NONE would make a lateral move to the bottom of another regionals list in this environment.
People might threaten to leave, but when their guard was down and they were more honest (when strategically they shouldn't have been) in what seemed like an innocent EL poll, IIRC about 70% said they are committed to Envoy come what may. Few present captains can duplicate their income outside an RJ captains job and many of the F/O's are in too deep to move anywhere but up to legacy or LCC.
I think Envoy knows they've got most pilots by the short-hairs and aren't worried too much with non-expected attrition, especially if the flow DOESN'T stop, but just slows to a more modest 20/month or in a consolidation scenario, the equivalent of that for present Envoy PP's.
I don't know if you keep up with the hiring news going on above the regional level, but things are changing quickly. Most of the bottom tier LCC jobs are pretty easy to attain, it just takes a little groundwork. Corporate jobs are opening up all over as corporate pilots shuffle into the regionals to try and get 121 time on their resume for the legacies. Overseas jobs are there and attainable if a pilot is so inclined. And the legacies are not slowing down.
For most FO's that are staying, their top choice is AA. They aren't going to hustle for a job at Frontier or head overseas to Emirates to get out of the regional rat race. They are staying here, and watching what happens. Maybe FO's here felt trapped in the past, but I promise you, most that want out now, are getting out.
How much will they put up with, should the flow be modified or slowed (outside of the contract)? My guess is, not much.
I think we both agree that within the next year something will happen. We can't flow 30/month and hire 10. It's not sustainable. I think they need us. I think they will figure out they need us more than we need them. Same goes for PDT and PSA. Their model is not working and they still need their RJ's flying.