Originally Posted by
Sliceback
Somethings have better odds of being able to forecast. Even with large cutbacks the Big 3 retirements would provide better odds of better seniority and career progression. Guys hired early in the Big 3 hiring cycle are looking at 777 CA about the same LOS that SW is projecting upgrades. If they choose to stay n/b instead their seniority would be ridiculously senior. Guys hired later in the curve won't have the same differential but based on retirements the Big 3 still outpace SW.
Nothing against SW. I think they're a fine company. But the ages, hiring cycles, and retirement data of the different pilot groups is hard to dispute.
Actually it is very easy to dispute as all you have to do is look at the past. The big 3 have typically hired until they fired. When the furloughs hit it went deep into the seniority list and didn't start moving again for almost a decade. Add into the mix the amount of mergers, larger RJ's for the regionals and you have the making of some backwards progression for quite some time.
This logic is the same ones people use to choose the regional to chase the captain upgrade and it usually didn't turn out the way they expected. To make even the slightest educated guess for anything more than 3-4 years out would be ridiculous based on what could and has happened.