Originally Posted by eaglefly

I've read several articles I agree with that have a consistent tone about oil prices. They won't return to to $80-$100/barrel range of the past, but will remain within a $55-$65/barrel range which is I believe now something like $48/barrel. OPEC is toast and the Saudi's will no longer be the swing producer that truly controls the market price. Several other OPEC producers are in trouble and Venezuela is on the verge of collapse. OPEC has maxed production in the hope of knocking out the shale business, but that is and will fail. The estimated break even cost for shale producers is about $50/barrel, so acceptable profits and stable prices are the expected future. As such, inefficient jets like 50-seat RJ's wont be parked on their economics, but on the other factor that renders them immobile.

A lack of pilots.

It may be that any glut of hiring done by Endeavor and others is simply to ensure that larger, advanced RJ delivery schedules are not threatened, which is a smart move. That same situation may just be why Parker is hesitant to commit more E-175's to Envoy as even with everything they can do, Envoy is looking like its contraction may be uncontrollable in the future. I've heard another round a 40 E-175's might be already worked out (just rumor), but banking on Envoy being anything more then an 80 jet airline in the future is risky. Presently at 1300 pilots and change (or so it's said), Envoy could burn the remainder of 824's to AA, have present outside attrition and BARELY staff an 80-jet/800 pilot airline in about 18 months. At that point, the present flow of the PP's threatens the viability of the carrier and something must be done, but what is the question.