Originally Posted by
F9 Driver
Quick math for those thinking that there is still a quick upgrade to be had.
The 6/1 Seniority List shows the most junior Captain at about 600 out of 995 on the master seniority list (ORD based Capt). I don't have attrition numbers, but expect an increasing outflow as Indigo plays their games throughout negotiations. With this young of a group you'll see very few retirements.
If the projections are close over the next 2 years my guess is that we'll be at nearly 1400 pilots by the end of 2018, and the most junior Captain will be around 800 on the list. So, if the growth happens and it's linear, today's new hire is looking at about 4 years until upgrade.
4 years isn't exactly slow, but it's twice as long as I've heard is being advertised to prospective hires, your mileage may vary, and a LOT can happen in 4 years but that's my public math for the moment.
We are losing about 5/month. 2016 Q1 new hires will be in the low 800 ish range in 2018. Fleet size will double in five years. Getting hired now means you'll be in top half of list in five years. I say upgrades 24-36 months...which is fine really because that's what it will realistically take (at a minimum) for most people to feel confident in the Bus.
Cuba will be turns, no overnights. Good showing for Frontier though!
And here's my prediction for the next base...PHL