I have looked at the data: that oft-quoted statistic is just one end of the great pilot play-doh machine. The input end has anywhere from 3K to 8k new pilots earning their ATP each year. If that range remains true, there will be anywhere between 18,000 and 48,000 new airline-eligible pilots entering the system between 2016 and 2022. On top of this, US airline pilot demand is actually going to decrease due to the retirement of older smaller regional aircraft.

I don't see the shortage. Neither does the GAO: http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661243.pdf

The GAO assessed that the airline industry will need 1,900-4,500 pilots per year to meet the demand for the period ending in 2024. Current "production" is well above replacement level and has been so since 2011.

Guys...stop using the word "shortage." Just because firms are now fiercely competing for pilots at the low end of the wage spectrum does not mean there's a shortage.