Originally Posted by
dupe
I have looked at the data: that oft-quoted statistic is just one end of the great pilot play-doh machine. The input end has anywhere from 3K to 8k new pilots earning their ATP each year. If that range remains true, there will be anywhere between 18,000 and 48,000 new airline-eligible pilots entering the system between 2016 and 2022. On top of this, US airline pilot demand is actually going to decrease due to the retirement of older smaller regional aircraft.
I don't see the shortage. Neither does the GAO:
http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661243.pdf
The GAO assessed that the airline industry will need 1,900-4,500 pilots per year to meet the demand for the period ending in 2024. Current "production" is well above replacement level and has been so since 2011.
Guys...stop using the word "shortage." Just because firms are now fiercely competing for pilots at the low end of the wage spectrum does not mean there's a shortage.
I find it extremely hard to believe that they're are 3-8K new ATP's issued each year. I was at UND commencement a while back and the majority of the aviation grads are Asian. I worked at a pretty busy flight school in the NE and I can count on two hands how many students were able to make it through their CFI. I can think of ten fold the amount of students that ran out of money. I agree that the majors may never feel the shortage, but it seems like prospects are good for someone just getting in to the 121 world. Or that's what I tell myself anyway...