This will be the beginning of the shortage. If you can't see that then you are just not looking very hard.

dupe, you keep saying the amount of ATP that come out of the U.S. every year will meet the demand but that is not even close to true as you don't take into account all the flying that those ATPs will be soaking up. You just assume they are all going to the U.S. airlines which is not even close as just about every airline sends their pilots to the U.S. to train. Just the pan Pacific region will require more than double the amount of pilots that the U.S. will. Not to mention all the corporate, charters, fractionals that are getting the ATPs.

With less military pilots because of the switch to drones and less wars to fight will lead to less pilots from the military side. The regionals will suffer because the pay doesn't justify the expense. This is why they are starting to offer large signing sums just to get pilots.

Do you think if there were plenty of pilot that the regionals would be offering $15,000 signing bonuses? American Airlines? regional carriers hope to attract new pilots with $15,000 signing bonus | | Dallas Morning News