Elevator operators held a similar opinion in 1945. They were so confident that they went on strike. Technology is advancing rapidly. Often those the closest are the last to see change on the horizon. Sometimes all an industry needs to make huge advances is a crisis. The impending pilot shortage could provide the catalysis needed.

Change could come in a variety of ways. The airlines could push through the multi-crew pilots license concept and produce their own cheap indentured labor. Airliners could become partially automated and have only one pilot and a ground based counterpart at the helm. As previously mentioned people could still be seated in front as a facade for the passengers.

It really does not matter how the future manifests itself but rather the impact it will have on the profession. In my estimation the results will all be the same in that pilots (or whatever they will be called) will continue to lose wages and endure more difficult working conditions. At one time it took five people to operate a transport category plane. Today it takes one half awake person and a well programmed FMS.

Advances in technology serves to make it cheaper for passengers and the company. It does not translate into more wages or professional value for pilots to operate planes that increasingly fly themselves. There is no doubt that the profession is advancing towards a future that will need human input less and less. It is highly unlikely that people today who are in their 20's will be manually flying planes in their late 50's. I would be surprised if it takes that long.


Skyhigh