Originally Posted by
Lobaeux
The only thing you know is what has happened, not what will happen. .......
............ The point is, you can only go off of recent trends and even then it's a crap shoot..
No, do not do this. When making a career decision, whatvever happens, do not go off of recent trend data. That's completely irrelevant. Go off of current facts and basic math. Aircraft orders & attrition. Those are the only two things to that create CA vacancy bids.
The very rare exception to this is FOs bypassing UG because of the crappy regional-airline-style schedule such as AA/E190 and DAL/B717MD88.
There is no guarantees obviously but using factual information is your best bet. And I agree completely that Spirit has already hired its last captain for the current aircraft orders.