LOL.. here we go again. The 'magical' quick Capt upgrades and speculations.

As a '07 hire who is about 9800 on the seniority list, I don't expect to see Captain for another year or two. And that will then be bottom of the list!

Reality is, the junior Capt on this bid was 9658 out of SFO (737) and the junior Capt in EWR is currently 8707. There are also a TON of FO's Senior to them, just waiting to hold Capt at a better relative seniority than 100%.

Keep in mind, we are scheduled to hire 700 between now and next July.. Good! We are also retiring/losing @400. Net gain of around 300 pilots which will put our Seniority list at 13000 (maybe). And while the Triple 300er's and new 73's are a good thing, we are also losing some 74's..

'13 hires holding Captain by the end of 2017?! No way.

Always
Motch

PS) where should the line be for percentage of the last Captain? With this bid, 9658 out of 12600 pilots means he's at 76.6% on the list. Always figured you have to be somewhere around the 75% before you can hold Captain.. and then as the most Junior guy, on the smallest airplane at the worst base (with regards to Cost of Living). On Reserve, no weekends off and worst vacation!

PPS) There are about 925 pilots junior to me BEFORE we started hiring off the street... How many were hired in 2010,11 and 12?
Most likely it will be 4-5 years before anyone hired in 2013 sees Captain. Unless of course we order a NSNB aircraft, because of it's low Captain rates.