Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
Lot of variables here.....
1) How many pilots senior to the junior CA are seat locked hard? There has been lots of movement the last few years.
Good question.. how many of them were seat locked beginning 2015 and will be off beginning of 2017? Unknown but there has to be some..
Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
2) How many pilots are still out on furlough? I would bet about 4-500, so the post merger hires are really only 6-700 numbers from upgrade. Unless the furloughs come rushing back in the next 12 months.
Another good question. But I know this- there are a handful of LUAL pilots friends from my old Guard unit who are still out but will be coming back sometime next year.. all can hold Capt. There must be more like that. I believe the 5 year Mil Leave deal that was part of C2012 will be hitting it's limit next year.. so I will expect a bunch of pilots to return, many who can and will hold Left seat.
Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
3) Historically 1/3 of the pilots bypass upgraded for whatever reason. So theoretically a post merger hire is 4-500 numbers from upgrade.
True.. but again, 2/3 take it and there are (by my math) a ton of pilots from both sides who were hired in the 2000's that still are FO's. Again, it's a variable that doesn't have a hard number.. but it does mean that before a New Hire (from 2010 and on) will have a shot, those from 2000-8 (from both Legacy's) will need to be offered a shot!
Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
We may not see the post merger hires upgrade in mass, but i think by the end of next year there will be a handful of 2012-2013 hire CAs at UA.
Well, now you're shifting the year. It was about 2013 hires but you are mentioning 2012?!
Reality is-
Company has stated that they plan to hire up to 700 pilots between now and July, 2017.
We know that around 400 pilots will leave our ranks between now and then.
We also know that not all of them are Captains. But lets say 90% are=
So we will lose 360 Captains that need replacing.
The 700 new hires are for retirements AND growth. So we are growing by 300 pilots. But that doesn't mean 300 Captains. Again, lets say 60% are needed as Captains for new (growth) aircraft = 180 Captains.
Total is possibly 540 new Captain awards by next year.
Based on current seniority list and latest captain bid.. by end of next year, you
might see the bottom Captain award being around Seniority number 10300 (on todays list).
It's hard to get info from our company website as things aren't updated, but.. I bet that (currently) number 10300 is still a 2007 hire.
Interesting enough, the last two guys from the SLI (LUAL &LCAL) are 10720ish~ Both are (I believe) 2008 hires.
End of next year, the bottom Captain will still be a Legacy Pilot. My .02cents!
Always
Motch
PS) anyone hired after 2008 is still having a great career.. FO line holder on almost any equipment, or widebody reserve (777/787)