Originally Posted by
82spukram
Motch
Just a quick breakdown. If (and it's a big IF) they add just 300 pilots per year over the next 3 summers (~12700,13000,13300) a 2013 hire (Sept 13 for me) and assuming 76% continues to hold Jr. Captain then Spring/Fall 18 you will see post merger pilots hold captain.
This assumes they are hiring at max capacity at this time and cannot hire enough pilots to cover deliveries. My guess is something will give. And it is more of a 2020 timeframe but it could just as easily be late 2017 if they actually follow through on the plan as it stands today for a post merger pilot to hold Jr captain.
We all know this business is fluid and the constant is change. I think anyone who is in my shoes (post merger hire) should be happy if we don't furlough over the next 3-5 years.
Good post.
a 2013 Hire being able to get a Captain bid sometime in 2018.. all things staying the same.. I'll take that bet!
Unfortunately, I expect things will NOT stay the same. I expect we will see age 67 (+?!) and I also think we might slow down deliveries.
Last year I flew with a NewHire (half wing) and he was talking about 2 year upgrades! I told him how I was here 8 years and didn't expect to be a Captain in 2 years, and that I was also told the same thing as a New Hire (even though, we had 2 year Captains as CAL back in 07). But that isn't normal or reality. Better to plan on putting money away for a potential furlough because even if you have 1000 pilots behind you, you're not safe!
He's look was kinda sad.. but I think it's better to be straight with the Millennial Generation than to feed them $hit.
Always
Motch
Time to work.. got to get to Paris so I can watch Fussball tomorrow at the FanZone~