Originally Posted by
Jersdawg
We disagree on your first point.
Your second argument is not really the argument I'm trying to make. Unless they have changed the airline significantly QOL and pay wise (We've seen how this hasn't turned out), there will be zero new hires, None, if they mess with the flow.
Furthermore, the hiring environment will be completely different than when the 824 were in the longevity range that the PP are in. There are other places to go to move up and out, and those places will be hiring. We are seeing the LCCs get better contracts with better work rules and better pay. They will be hiring, as well as the other majors, the cargo carriers, and other attractive options. Waiting around 13 years (or whatever) for the flow isn't going to happen the same way anymore.
Mess with the PP agreement and gut the airline from the inside out. Wait until the flow shifts back to a slower rate with the later agreements, and ENY will avoid that disaster.
Sorry, but I don't see any moves from anyone other then what they already are willing to do. I see that claim of sudden mass exodus as chest-thumping. Sure, there will be a small percentage of outliers, but the pilots already proved via Cujo's poll, they plan to ride it out at Envoy for the blessed flow unless another legacy gets them first or the case of some, an LCC. As for the flow to AA, IMO, most if not all the LCC's, will have better contracts then AA within a few years and AA will be the least financially lucrative airline among the other legacies and LCC's like Southwest, Jet Blue, Spirit, etc. all who will have higher narrowbody rates and better work rules and at least equal 401(k) pensions. We're going to be the "cheap seats" in 2020, IMO, so personally, I don't think the flow is as golden a ticket as most other places considering where we are and where we're going.
Just my .02............