Sorry up front for the long posting.

First, my interpretation of the Force Shaping website is that, by law, an officer can't be RIF'd unless they were first eligible for VSP, so to RIF someone and then turn around and offer the same yeargroup VSP again would clearly open the AF up for all kinds of legal action. The AF already had to settle class action lawsuits from their 90's RIF actions.

Some more speculation of my own: I understood that the ultimate goal was to save $ on personnel costs over the long run to fund weapon-systems, and that the end strength goal was only a way to get there. In other words, if you can get a Major or LtCol to take VSP, you actually save twice the salary of a jr captain and never have to pay retirement - and the captain may still get out of his own accord, while the O4/O5 can see the end of the tunnel and will probably want to hold out for retirement. A one-time VSP payment, whether $120K or $400K is really just "budget dust" compared to the long term costs of salary, BAH, health care, retirement, etc. (and VSP is a lot cheaper than "early retirement"). This is why my money's on the 13-15 year groups this time around (and my hopes, since I'd be in that window) But of course, I also understand that common sense is not a factor in most AFPC decisions.

Finally, a separate thought - I wonder if AFPC realizes that when they RIF'd without a good plan in the 90s, they also compensated by bringing on a whole lot more prior enlisted folks through OTS than normal. These are captains that look like matrix overages in their yeargroups right now, but weren't eligible for the FY07 VSP/RIF. They will, however, be eligible for retirement in the next few years - the bottom will drop out in those same yeargroups that just got cut through the VSP/RIF, leaving a huge shortage of FGOs. SSDD.