No disrespect, but I am not sure what you're implying with this paragraph, my year group(2002) has not been riffed(yet), and we have also not been eligible for VSP and currently show the highest overage at 510 people. I'm slower than your average bear sometimes.

I see your points about the long term monetary benefits to cutting a LtCol or even a Major from the 12-15yr group peopl but since when has the USAF EVER looked to the long term?, if they did we'd never have RIFs or mass hiring sprees. I only think it seems off to ONLY offer VSP with a limited number of slots to 12-15yr people when they could likely get all of their numbers from the 2002 class alone in a lot of the career fields, especially when most people from the 12-15yr group being able to see the light at the end of the tunnel as you put it are going to be very hesitant to leave with only 140k.

To sum it up, neither of us know what is going to happen, we've heard very contradicting rumours and we both hope our respective YR groups are offered VSP before they RIF us. So basically we sit and wait, and hopefully be able to drink a tall one in a few weeks after that glorious AFPC confirmation email saying we've been approved.

I wonder, can they just cut the 2002 yr group people, make us leave before our 6yr point and not pay us a dime? I think though that if that was on the table, they woulda done it last year, or even the first year they did forceshaping. For whatever reason my career field was exempt the first goaround, and they never touched us again, hence us being an overage of 73.