I think all the theories posted on the '02 yeargroup are pretty solid - too senior for a force shaping board (?) and now rolling over 6 years, 500+ overages, etc. We'll just have to see - again AFPC does not necessarily use logic and common sense in their planning processes.
On a negative note, one way of culling the more senior yeargroups would be to slash our promotion rates and force us out, but that would still take longer than the end of FY09, with above the zone opportunities, etc.
Ultimately, the AF won't get to their numbers without reducing all the remaining overage yeargroups ('02 and '88-94), so I'm sure '02 cuts will happen at some point before the end of FY09.
Note that the Enlisted Force shaping matrix has totally disappearred from the FS website. Could the AF be coving the increase in Army and Marine Corp endstrength by cutting more officers to keep more "battlefield airmen" who more directly support the Army and Marines?