There is a shortage of experienced pilots -- the ones that take 10+ years to create, and who are headed for the doors like its the 1990s all over again. It is a shortage of guys to fill the non-flying gigs (that are still important to the operation, but not critical) and less desirable jobs that a second-half-of-the-career pilot would be filling.

No matter how many students you pump through UPT, that's not a problem you can solve overnight (or even this year or 5 years down the road if you start today). The problem is retention, not production.

What's funny is that the Flag officers who are presiding over this now are the same ones who were SQ/CCs back in 1996 the last time they were trying to solve this problem. They hated the answer last time, too (a squadron full of fresh wingmen doesn't help fill the experienced pilot jobs that are tough to man).

The last time they tried to solve this via fighter crossflow boards (which was possible because they still had so many T-38-trained Captain and Major heavy pilots. Thanks to General Lorenz a few years ago, we again have a big batch of tanker/transport pilots who came from T-38s, although they're much younger.

They were right all along! If you wait long enough, everything comes around full circle. What's old is new again!