Originally Posted by
seekingblue
Always hard to know upgrade times, since it's looking backward instead of forward.
But that sounds about in the ballpark.
Have you attended a job fair?
There is absolutely no chance someone hired today will upgrade in 3-4 years. Let's be very very liberal with the numbers and say that 70% will make you a captain. That means considering we have roughly 3400 pilots that we would have to get to 4850. We have a lot of jets on order but not enough to gain 1400 pilots in 3-4 years.
Realistically figure about 7 years. 7 years if we don't retire frames or order more then on the book would bring us to a little more then 5000 pilots, plus we have about 250 retirements between now and then.