If you start class Monday the 8th. You will be around 4000 something on the seniority list. I started on the 25th. Company seniority was mid 3900s. We have moved up 20 something spots in two weeks. Junior captain, which is DTW CRJ is 2500ish. So, 1500 FOs in front of you have to get out of the way, either by A. upgrading, which requires 1500 captains to leave/get fired/retire/lose medical or B. Moving on to another job. 1500 pilots is a lot. The only other way upgrades stay at 24 to 36 months is to add flying. Which is predicated on getting new contracts and the bigger challenge, hiring enough new pilots to expand the seniority list faster than the current attrition rate. I will be surprised if I upgrade in 4 years. But you never know. If attrition stays at 60/month. A new hire could upgrade in 24 months. If the recruiting and training. Department can keep up. Upgrade time is a living breathing document. It's always changing.