Originally Posted by
Jack Russell
It looks like we have different ideas about what a "projection" is. I consider it a future consideration usually based on the most positive assumptions that usually does NOT occur. It sounds as though you consider it a likelihood that is almost certain to occur barring the most unlikely situations. As for your final assertion and on that thought, there are multiple situations that could affect the flow that only involve AA, Envoy or all the wholly-owned's or both that would not impact affecting the world, the U.S. domestically or the airline industry.
Obviously, you're in for the duration there and that's gone, but others are not by virtue of their avoidance of Envoy or their abandonment of it for other non-legacy pilot positions.
Then I guess we will have to agree to disagree on what our expectations are for envoy going forward. I base my projections on a multitude of factors and not just a "positive assumption." These include the current contract as written, awards/arbitrations, past practices, conversations with both union leaders and management, and pure logic. I don't know your background, nor do I think you will share it with us. I've been here nearly a decade and know how this company operates much better then someone who has never worked here or otherwise has some sort of ax to grind.
If you want to base your projections on the worst case scenario, then by all means go for it. But if you're going to base them off of likely scenarios, then please provide numbers. I think a good place to start is looking at the mandatory retirements at AA alone that will require new-hire classes to be running well more then United and Delta in the coming years. A second place to look would be the flow aggrements and the amount each WO will be flowing (and how those numbers are derived). A third place would be to look at the size of each flowing pilot group. If you're projection is based solely on the fact that you think all those flow aggrements will be violated, well then you're on your own with that one!