"It's a giant gamble and anyone who trots out the future retirements gambit is selling snake oil."

Growth is a gamble. Retirements are guaranteed. The top age might change but no one here will be an airline pilot in 2086.

Stepping back to 2013 and projecting forward 20 years about 75-80% of the current 50,000(?) major airline pilots will be retired.

Peak retirement percentages used to about 2%, tops 3%. We're going to average 4% and the peak years, roughly 2022-2028, will see retirement percentages of 7% at individual airlines.