Originally Posted by
Eucatastrophy
Here's another way to think about it, by the numbers - I hope none of these thoughts make anyone mad, but I base it on being a third-generation AF Officer who's seen my father and grandfather retire as LtCols. Both had successful non-flying post-AF careers, but also learned some key lessons along the way.
I'm just curious, what do your Father and Grandfather recommend (assuming, uh, they're there to ask)? Whenever I meet older folks, retired military or not, they all think I'd be insane to even consider leaving at the 15 year point (I'm not going to). They understand the value of a regular paycheck not to mention health insurance, crappy as it is. I've meet very few retired military who after retiring, went to one job and kept it, especially the ones who went airlines. All had periods of unemployment. While a large cash payout is nice, it's not the same thing--if it were even close the AF would never offer it.
Regarding dying the day after you separate, if you do SBP your family will get more than $0, not a whole lot more, but something.
There is no broad right answer to VSP vs staying till retirement, it's a very personal decision based on what you want, what your family wants, etc. However...if you reduce it to strictly financial terms, I have to disagree with your assesment. Just as I think it would be insane for someone who hates the AF to stay 20 just to get the retirement, I think it would be pretty nuts for someone who likes it to get out just for the VSP. If you're inclined to stay anyway, then the "retirement" is something nice. If you're inclined the bolt then the VSP is just gravy.