Originally Posted by
D Mantooth
Not necessarily.
Nobody said there was no more money. They said that the deal was all that was possible at the time, due to market constraints (UAL and AMR were far below us), the pilots' overwhelming desire (as clearly indicated by polling) for an early deal, and the idea that a lengthy negotiation would ultimately lead to less total compensation due to opportunity costs and the TVM.
We got very lucky that other airlines leapfrogged us (though not necessarily the TA), and remain fortunate that the company is still making terrific profits.
But until we have a contract, and we take out our calculators and do some TVM calculations, and factor in the final changes to other sections and weigh how much they affect us, we cannot say for sure who was right or wrong.
So far, all I can tell for certain were right are the guys who said the company would not quickly roll over with a better deal. The rest remains to be seen.
Lets talk a little about the TVM. This is one of the most distorted topics on SM and usually slanted to further an agenda.
TVM is very important but every analysis I have seen is limited to how much extra money we need in 2 or 3 years to be at the same point at the end of the contract cycle. No analysis looking further down the road.
Well the one cycle analysis is absolutely true if one is retiring at the end of this cycle.
But the other often overlooked side of the coin is the value of compounding. If we net a deal worth just 3% more and every subsequent TA is started on a baseline 3% higher - what is the breakeven point and would more guys benefit in the long run or lose value?
I think its pretty obvious that the short time folks would lose out but the vast majority of Pilots would greatly benefit from a 1-2 year delay with a subsequent 3% higher baseline. I am not saying its right or wrong but with every new hire off probation the focus is slowly shifting to the long term interest of the Pilot group vs the short term.
OBTW - I am fairly optimistic that we will beat TA-1 by more than 3%.
Scoop