Originally Posted by go skers

Based on the seniority list from mid July

2001-84
No hiring 9/3/01-1/3/04
2004-104
2005-58
2006-106
2007-222
2008-124
No hiring 5/12/08-3/15/10
2010-98
2011-271
2013/current-352

The "824" group that gets to carry their vacation and sick accrual rates and get 50% metered to 30/month comes to an end sometime early summer 2017 and the switches to the protected pilot group which flows at 50% metered to 25/month. That agreement essentially covers pilots hired through 2011. From 2013 onward it comes out to around 15/month, the agreements are posted on the APC profile page if you really want to get into the deep stuff.

If AA hires consistently it'll take:
9 months to cover the 824 agreement (30/mo)
36 months to cover PP agreement (25/mo)
28 months 2013-present (15-10/mo variable based on size)

6 years to flow is in the general ballpark. Attrition at Envoy and random months of no hiring at AA could move those numbers in either direction. Typically the closer a pilot is to flowing the less likely they are to go elsewhere. CA attrition outside of flow is usually single digits per month. CA upgrade seems to be the cutoff where attrition drops.

Zombie apocalypses, unforeseen economic collapses and theories about management stopping the flow altogether could change it even more but good luck predicting those things.