Originally Posted by
moon
Running some quick upgrade numbers for those interested. 2 scenarios.
Scentric 1. We lose 300 captains to the flow next year and hire 300 FOs to replace.
Most junior upgrade awarded was an October 2010 hire.
300 after that pilot is a November 2011 hire. So upgrade would stay the same through end of 2017 at 6 years.
300 after that though started class on monday. So 2018 upgrades would be around 2 years.
Scenario 2. We lose 400 to flow and are able replace them with new FOs.
Same pilot is most junior captain awarded
400 after that pilot is a march 2014 hire. Meaning upgrade would drop by end of 2017 to 2 and 3/4 years and would continue to fall as there aren't even 300 pilots following that pilot.
Rough numbers based on an old seniority list but illustrates how quickly upgrades could drop here and current times don't necessarily project future upgrade times.
If Envoy gets 30/month the rest of the year they'll be just under 300 new hires this year. Both scenarios are well within reason for 2017 and beyond.
For the guys upgrading over the next couple of bids there will be a massive bubble of CAs leaving the E145 fleet. Of the remaining 250ish pilots in the "824" flow group 180 of them are coming off the E145 since very few of those guys bid the 175 or CRJ to avoid a seat lock prior to flow. That entire group should be gone by May or June. Even if the E145 fleet shrinks a little there will be a big opportunity to move up the list. Additionally since the E175 is fairly junior in the FO seat a lot of the upgrades will be coming off the CRJ and E145 which should help keep reserve times times pretty low across all three fleets if that was a big concern for anybody.