Over half of the regionals are running 2-3 years upgrade, so hard to see that coming down very much (simply not enough F/O candidates). You are correct though that a few (SkyWest for example) may trend down as Legacy retirements accelerate. I factored it in for Envoy because their current upgrade time is 8.5 years (new bid gets that down to a bit over 6 by years end). Forward projections are not perfect (ask an Envoy pilot who got hired on a three year flow promise in '99) but neither are they useless: unless Envoy shrinks (which clearly management does not want) or the job market completely dries up (unlikely, and would effect everyone equally) upgrade for a new hire is going to take several years less. Tough to make perfect assumptions, but you could definitely argue for $15-$30k more in compensation due to quicker upgrades at a few companies.

If you have insight at another regional that I covered message me and I'll adjust the numbers. By the way, I figured a three year upgrade at Envoy. It could very well be closer to two years if the hiring is good enough/40 per month flow is more than a symbolic gesture by AAG. I wasn't trying to paint the rosiest picture that I could, just project a reasonable forward analysis. But like you said, I know quite a bit about things over here; obviously when covering 12 different regionals, some of the particulars will get overlooked.