Originally Posted by
prc4prc
For folks that are interested and have over the mins, this event is a must attend, however, they were quick to point out that while there may be a 'future' qualified pilot shortage for the majors, there is not one now.
I drilled down on this during a one-on-one with a HR rep after the event, specifically the 1000 TPIC.
I meet all of the mins, meeting the mins does not equal being competitive. And that's what the HR rep told me (very nicely)!
I asked what was competitive, and was told 4000-5000 hrs.
I don't see why Southwest would drop their turbine PIC to 500 when 1000 is not even competitive.
Rocky also said they have 6000 or so applicants, and out of those numbers maybe +/- 3000 are in the hunt ( based on availability, etc). He said he has to share those applicants with UA/AA/DL etc.
Rocky also said that they are hiring based on training capacity. At least 550 new-hire pilots in 2017 with 11 sims. In late 2017/2018, the new sim building will be up and running with initially 18 sims, with the ability to expand to 26 sims.
Rocky said the future plan is to hire as many as they can train based on sim capacity.
I came away from the event - with no doubt that Southwest is a first class operation and if you don't have to commute, or the commute to their base is very simple, Southwest is the place to be.
I also know that while I more than meet their minimums, I am not competitive. These job fairs are not silver bullets and there is no shortage of competitive qualified applicants for the majors.
Toil on forgotten airline pilot generation - the jobs are coming - be prepared / no DUI's and above all else, don't lie.
I've been around when there was a huge glut of qualified pilots competing for SWA, including furloughees from UAL, AA, DAL, and US Air. A bunch of the US Air refugees migrated over the Jetblue, but they (at the time) still had to have 1000 PIC. That meant if a guy hired in 87-88 passed on the F-100 upgrade back in 1992, he might not every have gotten the qualifications to do anything but wait. Fifteen years in the 121 world, yet they didn't meet the min at FDX, SWA, or JB. It was gruesome. Some went to Mesa in the "jets for jobs" deal and got some PIC, just like some CAL pilots did at Exp Jet after the 03-04 layoffs. Some gutted it out, and are now AA pilots, and some gave us and went into other careers.
It was not uncommon for SWA to interview 20-30 and take (no ****) 3-5 out of the entire group during that period. Why not? They were selling sim time to HPA for type ratings, and they could take their pick of the guys with the right "spirit" to fit into their culture. If guys got turned down, where else would they go? Jetblue? FedEx? UPS? They re-interviewed many pilots who eventually got in after their second or third try. Some never got the nod however, even after that many attempts.
What is different now? That "sexy" group of 3000 (I've heard 4000 kicked around at other places) is still there, showing up in suits and doing all they can to get hired. If SWA pulls the 3 out of 25 thing on them again, however, they have a few options. Delta will hire 700-1000 next year at this rate. American is ramping back up....I'm hearing 400-500 off the street. United wants north of 700. UPS is hiring...small numbers but big salaries. FedEx is hiring about 40-50 a month right now and probably will continue to hire at that rate or better for a while. I was an aviation management major, but 4000-700-400-50-500 = lots of pilots are getting calls from multiple places. We have had 1-2 SWA guys in about every FedEx class this year, and Delta and UAL have poached a few too.
A few months ago at a seminar in VPS, I had a guy who had done recruiting for (small major) in the class. He was there because he had a FDX interview coming up. He said in house they thought 2017-18 would the year the "$hit hit the fan" in recruiting. I'm not sure anyone will ever be able to just waltz into SWA or a legacy without some work and a bit of good fortune, but I will say the days of "come back again next year x 3" are probably done. By the time 3 years go by, that pilot could be a captain at Frontier or Spirit, or if really lucky even FedEx. He could be flying a 787 for UAL out of SFO in the right seat, or holding a 76ER in JFK.
As far as being perfect--we've seen several folks with vehicular manslaughter charges get hired at (legacy) and (major LCC) this year. I didn't work with these clients, and cannot offer specifics, but the idea that you have to be perfect to work in this industry is obviously no longer the case.
That doesn't mean we as pilots need to get cocky. It doesn't mean you don't need to prepare as hard as you always did. It just means that years of substandard wages, ****ty work rules, and arrogance...and a little luck from the Colgan families...has killed a lot of the seed corn the airlines have used for decades to keep wages low and make guys do the trade show dance. Ten years ago you PAID to go to an Air Inc event hoping for 5 minute with a recruiter. Now....SWA, DAL, and UAL host their own events, as does JB. Ten years ago, regionals wouldn't give many ex-military guys a shot, knowing they'd leave when something better comes along. Now--they offer them jobs on the phone. They even pay bonuses.
At some point, I think airlines will have to evaluate a little more "does this guy WANT to be here" in their matrix. Turnover is inevitable, but its expensive. It doesn't take that many no-shows or resignations for airline recruiters to get a little more down to earth. It may not be two am in the bar yet, but midnight is coming, and nobody wants to come home along. They aren't flirting with the 2's yet, but but there are a lot of really fine 5's out there right now that are lonely. The 9s and 10s...there are a few...but most have already found their dates.
From the spectator seats--its fun to watch. Nobody likes arrogant pilots, but arrogant recruiters are even more repulsive. Some of those folks are going to have to start working just a bit harder at their jobs.
Final thought--SWAPA got a pretty good TA, but management didn't just negotiate with SWA. They negotiated with the ALPA teams at UAL, Delta, and APA at AA that have started improving contracts over the last couple cycles. When you are losing 10% of your new hire class to other airlines, you have to do something. Thank SWAPA for B plan, but send a Christmas card to those quitters too. They sent a strong signal that pulling gear for a dozen years for a 401k was not going to cut it.