Originally Posted by
sailingfun
We may not even need a black swan. Revenue has been in decline for almost the last two years masked by fuel prices dropping faster. Management has made repeated promises and set several dates when that would be corrected. So far they have missed every prediction on reversing the trend. I suspect 2016 will be the highest profit year. 2017 should not be bad since the fuel hedges are mostly done but increased personal costs will offset it. Fuel at 80 to 90 a barrel combined with a continued drop in ticket prices would probably push us out of the 20% profit sharing bucket completely.
We will see if the latest capacity cuts stem the tide.
Maybe, but the price of fuel seems to move somewhat with the economy lately. So if fuel is pushed back to that price range it could partially be to increased economic activity.
Basically - if the economy is strong enough to support $90/barrel with the increased oil production available the revenue trend may reverse.
In other words - who knows?
I am a yes vote but my personal thought is that the market for Pilots drives our leverage as much if not more than profits.
Scoop