You're incorrectly assuming that the cost of fuel is a fixed price. That is like saying, "historically, the price of milk is above average." You can't look at the average over the last 100 years because the data has increased as the years have progressed. If you analyze the data appropriately, you need to find the rate of change of fuel over the given data and find where the fuel SHOULD be based on the data and where it is. Given the data, fuel should be in the high $2. The only way to negate that positive trend would be to start the data set at the 2008 peak.