Originally Posted by
Grillemeyer
So it is about critical forecast reading... that's what I had in mind to convey to my students as well, even more because I know from own experience how often one is uncertain and how limited the means are to tell the story to the end user...
Don't you plan for alternates anyway? Or would you perhaps even call the forecaster..
Have you ever discussed a TAF (or a METAR) with the forecaster?
Grille
Exactly.
Two cases where I was burned by the forecast come to mind.
One was 20 years ago in the F-4, and the destination was forecast 25,000 cirrus; 10+ miles. No alternate required.
When we got there, a funny thing called "off-shore flow at 4 knots" had decided to go ON-shore at 4 knots. The entire Gulf Coast was 0/0...and we didn't have a lot of gas for options.
About 20-30 other airplanes were in the same predicament. Fortunately, we squeezed in on an ILS to "minimums..."
The second was April this year. About 10 widebody airliners (International arrivals) diverted to New Orleans because a forecast didn't work out.
Yes, I have talked with the weather guy in the Air Force....different example; I didn't like how the radar picture was looking; he assured me all would be well. Turns out, I was right. I too taught my students to "read the sky;" particularly thunderstorms (how to tell if building or decaying), haze layers (usually a wind shift as you go through it), lenticulars, cumulus, different ways fog can form..
Airline: on the New Orleans divert, the Capt talked with all of us AND the dispatcher. He had his doubts, but it looked reasonable. He still added a little gas.
Turned out, HE was right. He knew the weather patterns at Houston better than I or the other F/O.
The alternate was also socked-in. Ooops.