The 12000 hour pilot who dies CFIT didn't run into a mountain at 500 hours, either. Or 1000. Or 5000.

Let the 'I'm the safest pilot in the state' 500 hour expert speak in 10 or 15 years when he's got a leg to stand on. It's rather disingenuous to say that one has 500 hours and hasn't wrecked yet, and is therefore safer, and a ridiculous argument to suggest that the 12000 hour pilot (insert number here) is more dangerous because with 2400% more exposure and experience, has had a mishap.

In fact, one might reasonably observe that the pilot who proclaims himself the safest on the block at 500 hours, thanks to his safety-conscious view and humility...may be prime for the next crash.

The last 10,000 takeoffs and 15,000 hours don't count nearly as much as the next one.