Originally Posted by
gloopy
You absolutely can't attribute all or even most of the stock increases the entire sector has seen to buybacks.
Correct. The stock price climb is a combination of positive company performance, buybacks, reduction of capex, and investor sentiment...the latter from the macro market scamming everyone to believe a Hillary win would be better economically, investor community starting to believe in Oscar, and most recently the Buffet announcement.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
My broader point is one day we will wake up in the middle of a financial storm and deeply regret the many billions wasted on buybacks. Maybe, as you suggest, if its timed perfectly and used with precision, it could result in better numbers down the road on some things. But I don't ever see any airline making more from this than they paid to do it. The last time it rained, SWA crowd surfed above the entire industry taking marketshare with complete impunity and almost putting a legacy or two out of business, while paying 130 seat drivers higher than whale pay. All because they were making what, a billion a year off the hedges?
Correct, history suggests it's a fleecing of assets for those who don't care about the long term viability of the operation but just want to stuff pockets with short term gain while we're all left holding the bag of a financially insolvent company that our livelihood depends on. Only options for us though are to change careers, become mgmt at said airline, change airlines, or believe in Oscar and do our best. The SWA pilots believed in their mgmt and it worked out for them. I'm not changing careers, and I already declined Delta, so right now I am left with nothing but giving my best for all of us.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
We still have a lot of debt too, despite the hype that they're paying it down. DL has less debt on capital but more on pensions. There will come a time when one or more legacies rues the day they whizzed away many many billions on something that will be viewed as relatively frivolous in hindsight.
Again, that remains to be seen and you could be right. I really hope not and i can't do anything from my seat about it so I guess I can't live in negativity, but I'll add it's easier to fleece from an operation you know the government will bail out. You think US airlines will be treated better or worse going forward? I think worse unless any cratering can be tied to ME3/NAI. That should in theory suggest mgmt will be more genuine in their actions, and further highlights the need for the right CEO. Of all the CEOs in the airline world right now, who would you bet on? I guess my point is, we all want to be pilots and aren't changing careers, and virtually every airline in the world is hiring gangbusters. At some point you have to pick one and get onboard. If the pilot group wants more control of the operation, and that could be a legitimate option, then we need to push for contract alterations.
Never give up PS, it will allow you to sleep easier at night when the company makes these moves to increase the bottom line.