Originally Posted by
whalesurfer
Maybe. I'm just giving current upgrade times.
However, I should've said that currently it takes ~15 years for a line pilot to upgrade to a captain position at ups. Seems like APC Profiles have been updated. Remember, 15 years is the the first available upgrade class.
I agree that projections imply a quicker upgrade sometimes in the future BUT don't forget that everyone seems to be projecting an age 67 rule very shortly. Maybe even before the new president takes office? Additionally, the economy is doing ok but that's about it. So yes, these are conservative projections. If I were a potential new-hire I'd hope for the best but plan for the worst, wouldn't you?
From APC Profiles:
"Monthly guarantee: 81 hours*
Reserve guarantee: 81 hours*
(*75 hours per 28 days, converted to calendar month)
Vacation changes: 2 weeks of vacation in a single pay period (4 week period) = entire period OFF, pay protected or Vacation days paid out at 5 credit hours per day or Traditional vacation conflict rules or Vacation week slide to cover trip that falls outside of vacation
Int'l override pay/hr:
Capt/IRO/FO:
$6.50/$4.50/$4.50
Discounted Employee Stock Purchase Program (DESPP) offers 5% discount
Most Junior Capt hired: June 14, 2001 B757/767 ONT"
We've been down this road already, no? Using the IPA seniority analysis tool it will take me about 10 years to have the same overall seniority number as that June 14th guy - benefits of a 7year hiring gap. Increase the retirement age to 67 (making new average age that guys are removed from the list at 65), it's closer to 14 years. Single pilot ops is still a long way down the road, the company is in expansion mode, and a Trump administration and GOP congress is going to make America great so for the shorter term future all looks fine for pilots at UPS. That's not even taking into account for the new contract and the new aircraft both of which will lower those times significantly. You are just listing the current junior captain upgrade time and using it as a blanket projection for everyone. It's not that simple.
Regardless, 67 seems to be all rumor. According to this fast read there are no hard plans to raise the age.
http://www3.alpa.org/portals/alpa/fastread/2015/FastRead_20150225.htm
Here is the section: (circa 2015-not much else recent)
"JAPAN INCREASES MAXIMUM PILOT AGE FOR DOMESTIC OPS
Japan's transportation ministry has announced plans to increase the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots to 67 years from the current 64 years, which will be applicable only for domestic operations in Japan. Other countries have also increased their maximum pilot age rules, or have entertained proposals to do so.
It is important for ALPA members to know, however, that no plans are being made or even discussed to amend the maximum retirement age for pilots by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Federal Aviation Administration, or Transport Canada.
As was explained in the November 4, 2014, FastRead, ICAO establishes rules for the maximum age of pilots used in international operations. That maximum is 65 for captains and first officers. Individual states (i.e., countries) that conform to ICAO rules—including the United States, Canada, and Japan—may only exceed that age for domestic operations.
Late last year, ICAO established an upper age limit of 65 years as the maximum age for any pilot in international operations; previously, ICAO had no maximum age standard for first officers but did limit the age of the pilot-in-command to 65. Under the Fair Treatment of Experienced Pilots Act, the upper age limit for all pilots in the United States involved in FAR 121 operations was set at 65. Transport Canada adopted the new ICAO standard for international operations, which became effective November 13, 2014."
And something more recent further denouncing 67: https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2016/may/flight-training-magazine/career-adviser