Originally Posted by
whalesurfer
As of today the most junior captain was hired in June '01 (B757/767 ONT). That's 15 years!
....because facts are better than hopes and wishes.
Your 15 years number is just a snapshot of a dynamic set of data points, like a stock price.
Facts:
Junior Captain today would be a 1178 seniority number with NO bypass bidders.
2562 total pilots - 1178 captains = 1,384 seniority numbers to captain.
1384 cumulative mandatory retirements from today occurs in 2028 (per ST's senority xcel).
2016-2028 = 12 years. This is the absolute max. It cannot go any higher without shrinking the airline. That is fact.