It's seems like we're missing the real driver of the junior A positions being given out. It's not retirements, aircraft movements, or hiring. It's the senior FOs, many of whom experienced REAL stagnation (5-7 years M88B as the plug), are now above 50% seniority in their category. They get weekends, holidays, green slips, LCA trip buys, and the schedule they want. They are royalty of their category and the last two years have seen their QOL accelerate rapidly!

When I ask them why they aren't bidding the left seat I get two answers: 1) Not until I can make more money over there, 2) Not until I can hold a line consistently. Every one of them has a bid in for left seat but with a caveat for a certain seniority or line.

Thusly and forsooth, demand for the left seat bottom 15% will remain steady while the supply of "seniority appropriate" FOs will be very low. I predict we will see M88A and 717A positions go VERY junior for the next 2-3 years until 2014+ hires occupy the bottom of each category to meet the threshold set by the senior FOs.