Fellas, I think Boeing Aviator is correct.
You have to add the special charges (and the associated tax benefit for those special charges) back in with the PS pool from the SEC filing. If you look at the 3Q2016 report and compare to 3Q2015, you will see that in the nine months of 2016 UAL reported(in mil):
3Q2016
$2935 (income before taxes)
$506 (PS expenses page 11)
$669 (special charges-page 5)
$241 (Special charges tax benefit- page 8).
Total- $4351
Revenues- $27,504
Margin- 15.8%
On the same pages and same lines for 2015 you see:
3Q2015
$3314 (income before taxes)
$545 (PS expenses)
$195 (special charges-page 5)
$0 (Special charges tax benefit- page 8)
Total- $4054
Revenue- $28,828
Margin- 14.06%
With that I'm showing us $297 ahead with a slightly higher margin...on paper...but wait there's more.
Now look at the 4Q2015 annual numbers to see what we need for this current quarter:
$4219 (income before taxes)
$1035 PS and adjustments ($698-PS expenses, $326-special charges, $11-Special charges tax benefit)
Total- $5254
Revenues- $37,864
Margin- 13.9%
Now reference the link to see how the company calculates it all and start substituting the numbers where appropriate.
https://flyingtogether.ual.com/web/c..._v16_10-20.pdf
...but wait there's still more.
The denominator is a moving target unknown to us. The 2015 numbers show $6061 for UAL wide employee considered earnings. Who knows what that will be is year. I can think of these factors affecting the denominator:
1) All employee groups have gotten a pay raise and make more money
2) Level 3-4 salary grade employees are NOT participating for 2016 (See Profit Sharing FAQs from last year)
2a) does anyone know what a salary 3-4 is and how many we have?
3) Lots of high paying senior positions leaving and lower paying new hires coming in (and not eligible in 1st year)
3a) I still a slight uptick is salary and related costs showing on 3Q16 filing...roughly 6-9%
4) we just reduced CAPEX....when will we see the associated expense reduction? Lower expenses would make more profit...right?
I think in the 2016 annual report, when compared to 2015, we will see lower revenues, lower operating expenses, slightly lower PTIX, higher special charges all creating a higher margin in 2016. I think overall eligible employee earnings will be up and therefore I'm mailing in a solid 12.9% payout percentage for those who care.
Anyway, I'm not an expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.