Originally Posted by
Pedro4President
So per the guy a page or two back you have 60 people not flowing by choice. I had recently heard PDT the number was 100 pilots not flowing.
Quick math. 400 pilots flowing at 4 per month then it's an 8 year flow. Ok so you say your pilot group will increase and then flow 5 per month. 400 pilots flowing at five per month avg is a 6+ flow. Not to mention AA doesn't hire in December. So that's another 5-6 months to add to these numbers.
I'm interested in how PDT comes up with their numbers on a fast flow. The only way you accelerate PDTs flow is by increasing the pilot group. This is very much like a pyramid scheme. If you get in while it's a small group then you are golden but once it gets growing there isn't much to be had.
Conservatively, you are correct. 6-8 years would be with no additional growth and 0 attrition outside the flow. Those 2 variables drastically change the flow time, however, and there is no way to accurately predict them. I've heard the proposed pilot size is 1,000 - 1,200 over the next 2 years which would equal a flow of 8-9 a month. Additionally, you will move up generally quickly until you reach about 50% seniority where the attrition of pilots above you tapers off.
My best guess is approximately 5 years for a new guy to flow if our currebt projections continue and we do not experience another 9/11 type of scenario. Of course, as we all know, tge only constant is change so buckle up its gonna be an interesting ride!