To an extent you can trust them. You have to understand they are best estimates at best and WAGs at worse. No one really knows what the future can bring. For instance I can tell you right now, reserve at my carrier for FOs is something like 4 months. When I hired on as a FO is about 2 weeks. So right now, 4 months. Tomorrow the company could announce we are losing a major contract and we are suspending all new hire training. That means 4 months would change to indefinitely. Conversely they could also announce a new major contract with lots of new airplanes, pay raises, and a daily Snickers bar in everyone's v-file. My shop could be the place to be...running classes of 40 a month. In that case reserve would be non existent.

The reality is neither is likely to happen, but it has happened before, and can happen again.