Originally Posted by
N1234
It tells you something about the distribution of people upgrading.
You are correct that each everyone's case is different. So there is no "one size fits all" model here. But looking at the distribution you have an idea of how many senior folks are still getting on the upgrade train and by inference have an idea of when you are likely to hold a line etc....
I just don't really think the median number tells you anything about holding a line in a junior base. Recently it was like 12 years before you could be the plug captain in SLC. You are better off looking at the bid info and finding out the seniority of the junior guaranteed line holder in the base of your choice. The median number is going to be all over the place month to month depending on the number of upgrades and what bases they are going to. If you had a month where there were 50 upgrades, but all in DTW, you would see the median very close to the junior award.